Research Series · Investigation in progress

Companies that look
healthier than they are.

The Zombie Corp series finds companies that look healthier than they are — whether they hide a dead core behind unwritten goodwill, or broken economics behind a story of future profits. We check the leaves, not just the canopy.

Layer 01
The zombie core. Cannot cover interest payments from earnings for three consecutive years — and has been operating long enough that this isn't a growth-phase excuse.
Layer 02
The mask. Goodwill from an arm’s-length purchase exceeds tangible equity, so the balance sheet only looks positive because of what was paid for other companies. The purchase has to be arm’s-length: goodwill carried over from a merger between entities the same owner controls creates nothing to hide.
Layer 03
Stale recognition. Acquisitions were debt-funded and the goodwill has never been honestly written down. Management has every incentive to keep it that way.
Investigations
Investigation #1 Live · June 2026 Corrected · August 2026
Withdrawn — instrument does not apply

SpaceX IPO & the US Economy

The largest IPO in stock market history — scored the day before pricing, and withdrawn eleven weeks later. The xAI merger was common control: it created $3 million of goodwill, not $250 billion. A failed prediction, published with the original wording intact.

Ipalibo Da-Wariboko · June 8, 2026
Investigation #2 Live · June 2026

Gaming's $195B Paradox

The games industry hit an all-time high — and the layoffs won't stop. The Goodwill Mask Scorecard applied to three roll-ups: one it would have caught early (Embracer), one it flags now (Unity), one it clears (Take-Two).

Ipalibo Da-Wariboko · June 20, 2026
Investigation #3 Live · June 2026
13 / 20 — Chasing Breakeven

OpenAI & the AI Economy

The first Burn Mask investigation. OpenAI scored the month its IPO filing went public — a genuinely improving business wrapped in a fragile, narrative-funded capital structure. Plus: the AI-capital cycle, who really bears the risk, and the one event that settles it.

Ipalibo Da-Wariboko · June 21, 2026
Investigation #4 Live · July 2026
Cleared — all three instruments

The Reservoir

A new instrument for catching companies that spend their brand rather than build it — and the company it cleared. Plus: the footnote that tells you which brands are closest to being written down.

Ipalibo Da-Wariboko · July 23, 2026
Investigation #5 Live · August 2026
Cleared — confirmed negative

Negative Equity Is Not a Mask

Starbucks carries an $8.1bn shareholders' deficit and $3.4bn of goodwill — and trips Layer 2 harder than anything this series has run. It is clean. Why the layer misfires on a company that bought back its own stock instead of other companies, and the one amendment that fixes it.

Ipalibo Da-Wariboko · August 5, 2026
Investigation #6

Coming next.

Another company that looks healthier than it is — in research now, verified against the actual filing before it ships. One every seven weeks, never rushed.

In progress
The method

The Goodwill Mask Scorecard (v1.3) is a 20-point repeatable framework calibrated across four test companies before being applied to any live case. It scores one question with evidence, not opinion: is this company hiding genuine weakness behind unimpaired acquisition goodwill?

Anchor
OECD zombie definition (EBIT ÷ interest <1 for 3 consecutive years, firm ≥10 years old) plus CEPR cash-flow confirmation
The edge
Goodwill vs. tangible equity, debt-funded acquisition pattern, and stale recognition — what none of the standard definitions include
Calibration
Roper (cleared), Wayfair (screened out), B. Riley (rerouted), B&G Foods (17/20 Acute) — all four required behaviors proven before any live case
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